Last week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the eight films shortlisted for the statue for Documentary Short Subject. Then, the European Film Academy and the European culture channel ARTE announced their nominated documentaries--and the Oscar doc chatter officially started.

Anne Thompson called up documentarian A.J. Schnack (who maintains his doc blog All These Wonderful Things) to pick front-runners, dark horses and more after the international announcement.

What did they come up with? The Cove and Food Inc. seem to be locks. Micheal Moore and Capitalism: A Love Story could go either way. And some films like The Way We Get By and (2009 DocuWeeks participant) Mugabe and the White African just may surprise you.

Read the whole analysis here.

Also, why have HBO documentaries won 20 Academy Awards over the years? Aren't their cabinets filled with Emmy Awards already?

Of that recent AMPAS shortlist, five of the eight had some connection with HBO. Steve Pond digs into HBO's Oscar doc dominance in a piece on The Wrap.